We correctly identified the teams to focus on for home run prop bets on Thursday, but regrettably, our player selections fell short. Let’s reverse our fortunes and cap off the week with a flourish. Here are our top three home run picks for Friday’s MLB matchups.
- Rhys Hoskins (+420 FanDuel)
– Cardinals at Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET
If you’ve been following our strategy, you’ll recognize our inclination to bet against Lance Lynn with home run props. Lynn, the St. Louis Cardinals pitcher, consistently challenges hitters with fastballs, resulting in a high barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Rhys Hoskins emerges as an ideal candidate here due to his boom-or-bust hitting style. Despite a modest batting average of .220 this season, the Milwaukee Brewers’ slugger leads his team in home runs (eight) and sits 15th in the league for barrel rate (15.1 percent).
- Shohei Ohtani (+340 FD)
– Royals at Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET
While we seldom wager on Shohei Ohtani due to his typically low odds, +340 seems overly generous given the favorable conditions he faces on Friday night. The Los Angeles Dodgers sensation tops MLB in barrel rate at 24.8 percent, a remarkable feat with no other qualified hitter even nearing his level. Ohtani boasts the highest batting average (.355) and slugging percentage (.678) this season and has already smacked three home runs in just nine at-bats against San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King. This price appears undervalued, warranting consideration below +300.
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- Michael Conforto (+750 FD)
– Reds at Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET
Andrew Abbott, the Cincinnati Reds pitcher, presents an enticing opportunity to target with a home run prop. Abbott, a left-hander, currently ranks highest among qualified pitchers for fly ball rate, having surrendered multiple homers in three of his last four starts. Additionally, the wind is forecasted to blow strongly out to center field at Oracle Park on Friday night, further favoring hitters. Michael Conforto enters the fray batting an impressive .444 with a 1.489 OPS and two home runs over the past week. Against left-handed pitchers, he leads the San Francisco Giants with three home runs and a .576 slugging percentage this season. His current odds appear inflated given the circumstances.
