The Texans’ offensive coordinator, affectionately known as PFF Bobby among football analytics enthusiasts, initially entertained the notion of molding Houston’s offense into a predominantly pass-oriented scheme, spearheaded by rising star C.J. Stroud, whose rookie performance in 2023 left defenses reeling.
In the season opener against Baltimore, the Texans adopted a markedly pass-heavy strategy, surpassing the expected rate of dropbacks by 8 percent. This trend persisted into Week 3, with Houston exceeding its anticipated dropback rate by 7 percent. Stroud, in his initial NFL outings, attempted 121 passes, trailing only Kirk Cousins in dropback frequency heading into Week 4.
Such a high volume of pass attempts sparked criticism from traditionalists, who insisted that winning in the NFL with a rookie quarterback necessitated a run-centric approach, reserving passing for necessity and relying on stout defense—a time-honored formula. Despite this backlash, Slowik, the offensive coordinator, altered course, steering the offense towards a more balanced or run-oriented strategy for the following six weeks, during which Houston operated 4 percent below its expected dropback rate.
However, a noteworthy shift occurred during this period: Slowik began favoring more frequent early-down dropbacks, deviating from the earlier approach where Houston lagged behind by 8 percent in pass rate over expected on first downs—a departure from analytics conventions.
From Week 11 onwards, the Texans slightly exceeded their anticipated pass rate on first downs and overall. Slowik’s offense, while still ranking in the league’s top half in terms of pass frequency, only marginally leaned towards passing. Surprisingly, teams like the Raiders and Saints were nearly as pass-oriented as Stroud and the Texans.
Looking ahead to 2024, one standout performance from the 2023 season was the Texans’ Week 9 victory over the Bucs, a high-scoring affair where Stroud showcased his potential as both the franchise’s future and a rising NFL star. Slowik adopted an aggressive passing strategy against Tampa, significantly exceeding expected pass rates on first downs and overall, culminating in a memorable display of offensive prowess by Stroud.
This standout performance contrasted sharply with Slowik’s low point as a play-caller—a dismal Week 8 loss to the struggling Panthers, marked by conservative early-down play-calling that proved costly for Houston.
Speculation arises regarding the Texans’ approach in 2024, particularly with the addition of Stefon Diggs to complement the already formidable receiving duo of Tank Dell and Nico Collins. There’s anticipation that the Texans may finally embrace a pass-first offense under Stroud’s leadership.
Historical examples, such as the Eagles in 2022 and the Bills in 2020, illustrate how the acquisition of top-tier wide receivers can prompt teams to shift away from balanced offensive strategies towards a more pass-oriented approach. The Texans’ commitment to veteran Joe Mixon as their lead back suggests a departure from a traditional run-heavy game plan.
Increasing Stroud’s dropbacks could facilitate the necessary pass volume for Dell, Diggs, and Collins to have productive seasons in 2024. This would entail reducing reliance on 21 personnel formations and emphasizing 11 personnel to maximize the talents of their wide receiver trio.
Additionally, adopting a more aggressive approach on fourth downs could further enhance the Texans’ offensive potency. With hope, the addition of Diggs will steer the Texans away from their previous overly balanced offensive strategy and encourage Slowik to fully unleash Stroud’s potential.
